Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—First Quarter of 2023

Jasmine Will
Jasmine Will 2 Min Read

This survey took place between January 27 and February 16, 2023. Follow-up interviews took place in March 2023.


  • Expectations for inflation one to two years ahead have fallen but remain well above their levels from before the COVID-19 pandemic. Consumers’ expectations for growth in prices of some goods have edged down, although their price growth expectations for services such as rent have remained high.
  • Most consumers think the Bank’s ability to get inflation back to target is hampered by high government spending and challenges with supply chains. Many people believe supply chain issues will be resolved in the next two years, and some think prices for affected products will fall. Those who expect high government spending to impact inflation believe it will continue to do so for a long time.

Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations

  • High inflation and rising interest rates are putting pressure on consumers—and particularly on mortgage holders. In response, consumers expect to spend less on discretionary services—such as travel, restaurant meals and other social activities—than they did over the last 12 months.
  • Most Canadians see a recession as the most likely scenario for the economy in the next 12 months. But many are uncertain about where the economy and labour market are going. Consumers who are more uncertain are planning to spend less and save more as a precaution.
  • Despite uncertainty about the economy, workers view the job market as strong. Respondents, particularly those not satisfied with their current job, are confident they can find new work. Workers’ expectations for private sector wage growth are also near a survey high. But wage growth expectations remain below inflation expectations, and most workers do not see their wages catching up with recent inflation over the next year.
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