With roughly 10 months remaining before Californians head to the polls in 2026, a proposed tax on the state’s wealthiest residents is quickly becoming one of the most debated political issues. A new survey indicates that while the idea sparks interest, it also faces growing resistance—even in a state known for its progressive politics.
Early Support, But Not a Clear Majority
A recent poll shows the Billionaire Tax Act starting from a shaky position. Initial results put support at 48%, with 38% opposed and 14% still undecided. Political analysts note that ballot measures that fail to cross the 50% threshold early often struggle to gain enough momentum to pass.
The poll was conducted by the Mellman Group, which surveyed 800 likely California voters between January 6 and January 12, 2026. Participants were presented with the official ballot title and summary that would appear on voting materials in November.
The proposal itself calls for a one-time 5% tax on the total wealth of California residents worth at least $1 billion as of January 1, 2026.
Support Slips After Voters Hear Arguments
Once respondents were exposed to both supportive and critical messaging about the proposal, enthusiasm softened. Support dropped to 46%, while opposition climbed to 44%. Many voters voiced fears that the tax could harm the state’s economy, discourage investment, and potentially lead to job losses.
“There’s no love for billionaires,” said Republican strategist Mike Murphy during a media briefing. “But there are serious doubts about whether this measure will actually deliver what it promises.”
Concerns About Avoidance and Legal Challenges
One of the most striking findings from the survey was the level of skepticism around whether the tax would truly generate the revenue supporters predict. Nearly seven in ten voters said they believe it is very likely—or almost certain—that billionaires would hire teams of lawyers and accountants to minimize or avoid paying the tax.
Respondents also expressed concern that wealthy residents could move out of state, taking companies, jobs, and tax dollars with them. Almost half believe the measure would end up tangled in court battles, delaying or blocking its implementation altogether.
“These numbers show that this initiative faces an uphill battle,” the Mellman Group concluded, noting that voters tend to reject proposals when they see negative outcomes as more likely than positive ones.
Healthcare Funding at the Center of the Proposal
The Billionaire Tax Act is being backed by the Service Employees International Union Healthcare Workers West. The group estimates that around 200 individuals in California would be subject to the tax. Revenue from the measure would be directed toward shoring up healthcare funding, which supporters say has been strained by federal budget cuts.
However, the poll suggests voters are unconvinced that the tax would meaningfully solve the state’s healthcare challenges. Mellman Group managing director Michael Bloomfield said respondents found healthcare messaging to be the least persuasive element of the campaign.
“People understand how complicated healthcare is,” Bloomfield explained. “They’re skeptical that this proposal is the answer.”
Political and Tech Industry Divisions
The proposal has sparked sharp disagreements across Silicon Valley and beyond. Several prominent tech investors have publicly criticized Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna, a vocal supporter of the measure. Among the critics are David Sacks, Chamath Palihapitiya, Vinod Khosla, and Y Combinator president Garry Tan.
Reports have also highlighted high-profile departures and relocations. According to recent coverage, Google co-founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin have left California, and investor Peter Thiel has built a significant base in Miami.
Opposition has not been limited to the tech world. Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom and San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan have both spoken out against the proposal.
Still, not every billionaire is pushing back. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has said he is “perfectly fine” with the idea, while Airbnb CEO Brian Chesky has stated he plans to remain in California. At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called the tax “poorly designed,” underscoring the range of opinions among business leaders.
A Tough Road to November
As signature collection continues and the campaign heats up, the poll’s message is clear: while taxing billionaires may sound appealing to many voters, concerns over economic impact, legal feasibility, and actual revenue generation could make passing the initiative far from certain.
With months still to go before the election, both supporters and opponents are preparing for an intense fight over one of the most ambitious—and controversial—tax proposals California has seen in years.
